2 December 2018, London
Elevating Sino-Russo-American relations to the long-term view, over decades and not bowing to daily market gyrations that fill broker’s pockets, much of the evolution in these relations can be explained.
Over the past century, communism failed both China and Russia. Socialism failed the West. Xi is losing the majority of Chinese youth who want open-market democracy, freer capitalism and individual self-fulfillment. His dictatorial hold on the CCP will crumble over the next decade.
Putin replaced the failed USSR and their corrupt Communist Party with a heavy-handed KGB-style domestic power structure and foreign policy attempting to rebuild the country’s prominence. The entrepreneurs ran away with all of their ill-begotten billions. He’ll be gone soon.
Both countries will fail again in the wake of Trump’s era of regaining the role of not being a Communist, and with all his personal flaws and lack of diplomatic or public sector experience, he is holding onto what The West seeks as its quality of life. When not, Americans are free to try to achieve improvement within a system built on the rule of law.
Both neo-Communisms will fail without this freedom or open market. However closed the West’s democratic governments are and ruled by elites, the open ability to pursue an independent lifestyle will win in the end.
That is the big picture in geo-political terms.China and Russia still lag dramatically behind America and the West as Third World countries outside their capitals. They will continue to pursue aggressive trade behaviour to catch up. Plus ca change…… In ten years, let’s all meet again and compare notes.